New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.
Voter turnout in Wednesday’s special election for Congress was less than 7%. I’m certain both of you find that unacceptable, but what’s the solution?
Dan Bryan: In a noncompetitive election, I’m not surprised. I’d be more concerned if this was a normal election with typical investments in messaging and turnout. In addition, it was a Wednesday special election in the middle of September, which meant only the most keyed-in voters even knew it was happening. Honestly, under the circumstances, 7% turnout wasn’t bad!
It does shine a light on our congressional replacement process, which is overly cumbersome, complicated, and far too drawn out. Compare that to the quick and easy Senate replacement process and it’s clear that we need to make changes.
Alex: I don’t know that I find it unacceptable given the circumstances. It was an election for a safe seat on a Wednesday election in the middle of September with almost no media coverage. What more can we really expect of voters with busy lives? If we want someone to blame, I’ll point a finger at Sam Wang and the Princeton Gerrymandering Project for misleading the redistricting commission and basically ensuring boring general election races for the next decade.
Elon Musk is spending money to re-elect Tom Kean and George Soros is indirectly helping Sue Altman. Does that matter? Does anybody care?
Alex: Boogeymen on both sides are good for firing up the base with those emails and texts everyone loves, but I don’t believe that it will become a serious issue. If given a choice, the campaign will take the money over the “outrage” every time. That being said, I am really looking forward to seeing how Sue Altman will convince a bunch of suburban moderates that the guy who made their Tesla, provides internet access for underserved communities, and creates products that restore vision to the blind is the real monster under the bed this fall.
Dan: It matters in the sense that any outside spending matters in a race as close as this one. But given Elon Musk’s legendarily bad instincts and poor performance in any field outside of electric vehicles, I wouldn’t be too worried about it if I were the Altman campaign.
And at this stage in the campaign, all they should be focusing on is executing their plan and communicating their message.
Nicholas Scutari has the votes to win re-election as Senate President and his coalition comes from home regions of six Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Frankly, he’d have support from Republican senators too, if he needed it. Does that mean legislative leadership elections is unrelated to the governor’s race — or does it mean something else?|
Dam: I don’t think leadership elections are *directly* tied to 2025 politics, but they certainly exist in the same world.|
It’s impossible to predict how the Democratic gubernatorial field will shape up by the time this race gets underway in earnest. My bet is that not every candidate making noise today will reach the starting line. So until we know who does (and doesn’t) actually launch their race, we won’t know how split the Democratic county organizations will be, and how that will affect the rest of the New Jersey political world.
Alex: I’m very intrigued by these races taking shape in a post-line world. On the one hand, if you’re worried about a potential challenge, it makes sense to coalesce your support early. If it’s done too early, however, it seems to have an eyebrow-raising effect that creates gossip among powerbrokers or accusations of corruption from the grassroots. For Democrats especially, who have relied so heavily on the machine to secure their precisely desired outcome, this will be a difficult balance to find in the coming years. Scutari may have had to make this move by his own calculation, but who’s to stop the Andy Kim-type activists from challenging their own representatives for committing to a leader so early on in the process? It’s certainly a big question for Republican congressional candidates and representatives, for example. Regardless, I think it will be a cold day in hell before Democratic legislators let a small thing like a gubernatorial election influence what they do!
If Phil Murphy had said in his last debate with Jack Ciattarelli that people in Maplewood were eating the dogs and eating the cats, I would imagine the outcome of the 2021 election would have been different. On a bigger picture, what does it take to sway an undecided voter in a national election?
Alex: Phil Murphy only eats chapstick at debates, but when you think about it, we really have no evidence that Dan isn’t eating the pets in Maplewood…
In such a polarized country, particularly in an election where people pretty much have all the information they’re going to have about each side, there are so few truly undecided voters. I have to think that in a year where the economy is such a pressing, day-to-day issue for most Americans, people will ultimately vote their pocketbook. For Kamala Harris, she has to hope that that means voters have decided that they can simply afford to focus on other issues than the glaring inflation, but for Donald Trump, I think it’s much more powerful for this issue to mobilize the voters for whom the cost of putting food on the table and gas in their cars simply become too unbearable.
Dan: Alex, if I so much as looked sideways at my dog, my wife would have me out on the streets. There is no safer pet in America.
But your point is a good one, David. Years ago, we would have thought that saying something as insane and irresponsible as that would be disqualifying in a presidential election. Hell, Howard Dean was bounced because he made a weird noise! But I worry now that saying something like this sends a signal to Trump voters that only makes them like him more.
True or false, responsible or irresponsible, Trump says whatever he wants without worrying about the consequences (for himself or especially anyone else). I think that sends a message not only to his base, but to disaffected Americans that feel let down and forgotten by the establishment. Trump’s volatility is a feature for them, not a bug, and the more he says crazy things that any normal politician wouldn’t say, the more they like him.
To be clear: I don’t think this is genius at work. I also don’t think it’s a winning strategy. But I think it explains why we end up scratching our heads every time we expect Trump’s latest embarrassment to move the polls, and they don’t.
